2009 States Primer Part One
December is finally here! This year that means two things, Christmas sales and the 2009 State Championships, news of which I was the first to report on earlier this fall. This time around States comes after Worlds, so we have a pretty good idea of what the metagame has in store for us. In part one of my States series I’ll take a look at the top decks so you know what to look out for this weekend.
The Top Dogs:
Jund
In the post Worlds metagame there can be little doubt that Jund is king. Posting an impressive 51% of decks that finished 5-1 or better in Rome, Jund is clearly the defining deck of the format. The raw power of being able to cascade yourself out of almost any situation makes it very difficult to attack. Almost every card in the deck is a two-for-one, so defeating it requires a very focused strategy. If you are looking for a last minute deck you could do far worse than Jund. Even with its impressive results, I feel people don’t give this deck the respect it deserves.
3 Bituminous Blast
4 Blightning
4 Bloodbraid Elf
1 Boarderland Ranger
2 Broodmate Dragon
1 Garruk Wildspeaker
2 Great Stable Stag
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Malestrom Pulse
4 Putrid Leech
4 Sprouting Thrinax
2 Terminate
3 Dragonskull Summit
3 Forest
3 Moutain
1 Oran-Rief
4 Rootbound Craig
4 Savage Lands
4 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
Also, be on the lookout for variants that cut in Putrid Leech, often in favor of Rampant Growth and Siege-Gang Commander. I don’t care for the change personally, but untaping with SGC out is pretty scary.
The deck that took home the title at Worlds is no doubt a worthy contender. It’s nearly endless supply of powerful monsters can overwhelm many decks. In exchange for this awesome power your mana can be a bit awkward. Many of the strategies to combat Jund have some crossover into this matchup in the way of Goblin Ruinblaster. This deck might not appear at States as much as it should due to the hefty price tag. A set of Baneslayers alone can be upwards of $200, if you can get your hands on them at all. It’s something to keep in mind when predicting your local metagame.
The second most successful deck at worlds is also a fine choice. This deck may have fallen off the radar a bit of late and I don’t feel that’s justified. The deck is solid and has a slightly favorable Jund matchup to boot. You also have the fact that people aren’t gunning for you and may catch some by surprise. If you want an alternative to Savage Lands this weekend, Boros could be a good call.
The Other Players:
These decks tend to play various knights, angels and other threats in the hopes of overpowering the Jund menace. Although the attempt is noble, an experienced Jund mage can often power through your men. The deck failed to gain traction at Worlds and ultimately I have to advice against it. Naya is simply a stronger deck choice right now.
The allure of random green monsters have been on the forefront of the Magic community since the Anderson’s took down the Star City 5k last month and I’ll admit that my inner small child loves the thought of bashing with an endless army of beasts, insects and elves. Sadly as long as Jund is around, the deck will need to remain on the bench.
Ever since Lotus Cobra has been spoiled people have dreamed of casting turn 3 ultimatums. Conely Woods sleeved up the deck for the Pro Tour and lived the dream. The best part about his take on the deck is that it actually does something in the event that your Lotus Cobra dies or, gasp, isn’t in your opener. I’m still not sold on the deck due to its poor red matchup, but it may be the most fun deck around right now.
I imagine some duelist’s this weekend will continue their undying support of team Edward at states. Stay alert for their telltale pale sleeves that sparkle ever so slightly in the light. In all seriousness, the vamp deck isn’t that bad. It is a little underpowered, but if you get lucky with having black cards on top at the right time for Nocturnous, even poor matchups can be won. Someone did 6-0 Worlds with the deck after all. I’m not suggesting that you pack the deck on Saturday, just be prepared for it.
Red Deck Wins is a solid deck choice that I think will be popular with budget card slingers this year. The problem with this deck is its difficulty powering past lifegain cards like Baneslayer Angel. If someone untaps with one against you it is almost always over. Some decks try to combat this deficiency with Mark of Mutiny or Act of Treason but I find these cards to be quite underwhelming otherwise. Mike Flores has recently suggested a version featuring a splash of white for Ajani V and sideboard Paths. I like both decks, but I think the Flores version is a little stronger.
UWR Control
A few lists are running around competing for the mantle of the format’s control deck. These decks run different combinations of planeswalkers, sphinxes and angels to fight Jund. While certainly not bad, they suffer from Standard’s poor card draw and counterspells. I would recommend this deck if not for the influx of aforementioned burn spells.
While this might be a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to Jund, I expect fog to see plenty of play at Champs. While you do have a good matchup with the top deck, don’t be fooled into believing it is unlosable. A well-timed cascade into pulse can leave you playing catch-up. I think in many ways it is a sign of the warped format. Without a true control deck or a proper combo deck, the format becomes a slew of midrange cards running into each other. In any case, I would leave fog at home and try a deck with more Blightnings.
The LSV titled, GerryT created, cascade monster is quickly becoming a popular 60 in the format. People’s enjoyment over mana screwing Jund is in many ways like their desire to watch the Yankees lose. Unfortunately, the secret is out. Jund never forgives and rarely forgets. People know how to play their fetches now if they suspect the cascade onslaught. Furthermore, the deck is a bit of a glass cannon, needing to transform entirely to fight of the likes of Boros. It’s good for a spot of fun, but I’d be surprised to see it bring home my Province’s trophy.
The Rest:
I’ve gone over a few of the big decks for this year, but you can expect all kinds of wacky homebrews at States that might not find their way to a Pro Tour stage. Unlike a PTQ, there is little pressure to perform, so don’t be afraid to take a risk. Casual gems like Valakut and Crypt of Agadeem are sure to make it to the battlefield somewhere. And who knows? Cascade Swans burst on to the scene after regionals; maybe the next great deck is sitting on your kitchen table right now.
So what do I recommend? None of the above. My list is so crazy nobody has posted it yet. Interested? Then come back for part two tomorrow!
Until tomorrow,
Sean
Sean@power9pro.com
@SeanP9P on Twitter
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